Seminário de Biomatemática

28 de Abril 2009, 16h00

Disentangling non-linear dynamics and punctuated immune escape in complex recurrent pattern of human influenza A
Complexo Interdisciplinar, Sala B3-01

Sebastien Ballesteros (CNRS Paris)

Abstract:

Human Influenza epidemics in temperate areas are characterized by a relatively constant phase but a highly variable amplitude.
We show that simple epidemiological models can produce Uniform Phase and Chaotic Amplitude (UPCA) dynamics consistent with the observed time series.
Focusing on French data, we then present a recently developed method of maximum likelihood inference via iterated filtering in order to link theory and data.

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