Seminário de Biomatemática 7 de Outubro 2008, 16h00 Abstract: Individual perception of vaccine safety is an important factor in determining a person's adherence to a vaccination program. This perception, or belief, about the safety of a given vaccine, is not a static parameter but a variable subject to environmental influence. To complicate matters, percetion of risk (or safety) does not correspond to actual risk. In this paper we propose a way to model the dynamics of such beliefs in the context of a realistic epidemiological scenario. The methodology proposed is based on Bayesian inference, and can be extended to model more complex belief systems associated with decision models. | back |